
Landscapes and ecosystems in the American Southwest are under pressure from expanding populations and increased demands for water. Most climate models predict that this region, especially the Mojave Desert, will experience warmer temperatures in the coming century. However, the models do not agree on predictions of how future precipitation may vary. The primary goal of this project is to determine how climate conditions in general, and precipitation in particular, have changed over time in the American Southwest. The results of our studies will allow us to define the extent of natural climate variability inherent to the region, improve our understanding of how ecosystems responded to past extreme events such as megadroughts, and aid in predicting the potential effects that climate change may have on desert landscapes and biota. This information is critical to land use and water resource managers in preparing adaptation and mitigation strategies for life under future, potentially extreme, climate conditions.